The Trouble With Experts

Pop Culture March 30, 2012 / By Ben Weinlick

SYNOPSIS

Something to consider when we hear advice from "experts"

“We all want wise men to give us the secret truth, the real low-down, the inside dope about things – someone who knows more than we mere mortals know,” says writer/director Josh Freed.” But the reality is that many so-called experts don’t know any more than you or me. In fact, a 20-year study of experts shows they’re only right about half the time.”

The documentary in the link below features some astonishing stories of experts being wrong. We meet Dutch artist John Myatt who used house paint and KY jelly to forge the works of great masters. He managed to fool top art critics and museums for 8 years before he was finally caught. Then there are the wine experts who can’t even distinguish white wine from red and political experts whose predictions were only a tiny bit better than the equivalent of a chimpanzee throwing darts at a board.

I came across the CBC documentary a few months ago and many of the points made in it have stuck in my mind since then. It is not that I don’t think you can learn from people that know more about a subject, but the show makes a good case for being cautious of our human tendency to highly respect the advice of people that sound absolutely sure of themselves. The doc shows how we are hungry for the expert that can give us the quick fix, the silver bullet, the easy formula for success in any area of life we are trying to master. The more sure an expert sounds, the more we perk our ears up and listen even if what they are saying is bogus. Sounding sure is exciting and a charismatic quality, doubt and admitting one might be wrong about something gets boring and people tune out. The thing is, we should be paying attention to this kind of humility and openness to being wrong, because advice coming from this kind of perspective is usually more accurate and intelligent. Bukowski got it right… I think. To me Bukowski’s quote reminds me to always be aware I have biases that can get in the way of seeing clearly and because of that I should be careful of making overly confident assertions.

“The experts who are most often accurate in our studies are cautious, quiet and somewhat more boring. Try selling that to a TV producer.” Berkeley Psychology Professor Phillip Tetlock

Enjoy the documentary and share this post with others if you liked it.

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Author

Ben Weinlick

Ben Weinlick, MA is the founder of Think Jar Collective, a website and a group of people from diverse disciplines bringing together unique perspectives on creative thinking and innovation. Before Ben entered the community development and disability services field over 13 years ago, he thought he was going to spend his life terrorizing the experimental music and art scene. Always an idealist, Ben thought he was making a less egotistical choice by giving up art to work in a field more actively engaged in social justice issues. He soon discovered otherwise… Ben reminisced of this period, “I found I could be just as much of an ass (egotistical) in human services as the art world and began to see it was not about the domain one works in that matters in how you benefit others, but what kind of view one brings to whatever one does.” Eventually seeing the value of a creative approach in human services led Ben to complete a master's thesis which focused on enhancing creative thinking in human service design and delivery. Currently, Ben is leading think tank teams in the implementation of the research recommendations at SKILLS Society in Canada. Within Canada, Ben has been seen as a leader and innovator who is passionate about improving the quality of support services for people with disabilities. Currently, Ben is the Senior Leader of Research and Organizational Learning at SKILLS Society, part time faculty at Macewan University, a keynote speaker on creativity in human services and consults throughout Canada.... He also stills makes weird experimental music in his spare time. Of Ben’s passion he says, “People in disability services are often asking for innovation and creativity, I’m interested in how we can get our minds unstuck from status quo assumptions and see with fresh, creative eyes. If we can do a little more of that, we will set the stage for creativity and relevant innovations to emerge. I am very passionate about leading organizations to develop cultures where creativity thrives and yields better quality support services.”

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